A Beginner’s Guide to Luck and Variance in Poker
“Without variance, poker would be chess.”
Luck is an important part of poker and understanding how it works and what you can do to tackle bad luck is just as important.
Variance (the mathematical term for luck) is an inevitable part of poker and without it there wouldn't be much of a game.
Variance is the ups and downs of luck within the game. Negative variance is basically a spell of bad luck.
You can't outplay variance, you can't outrun variance, and you can't beat variance.
What you can do is anticipate it, prepare for it, and make sure your poker bankroll management is accounting for it.
Is there luck in poker? Is poker luck or skill?
There is absolutely luck involved in poker, in the short term.
At Poker Bankroll Expert, we like to say poker is 60% luck and 40% skill. This isn't a mathematically accurate statement, it's an expression to demonstrate the dominance that luck has in the game.
However, that's not to say that the game is all about luck. It's to show that in the short-term, we are all affected by luck and it's up to us to maximise the 40% skill so that we win the most when the going is good, and lose the least when the chips are down.
What exactly is variance?
Variance is the fluctuations in results at the poker table. It's the amount a player wins or loses based on luck.
Understanding and managing variance is crucial for long-term poker success, as it can have a significant impact on your finances.
Why Poker Bankroll Management matters
A run of bad luck at the card table can hit your bankroll which is why it’s so important to have solid bankroll management principles.
The most important rule is to have between 50 and 100 buy-ins in your bankroll. That means playing stakes that are at the right level so that if you get unlucky and lose a number of buy-ins, you have enough left to bounce back.
Making sure you have a big enough bankroll to withstand the swings of luck will mean that you can deal with negative variance (bad luck) more easily.
How does variance affect people?
Variance can cause players to experience both winning and losing streaks, and it's vital to be prepared for both. Losing streaks can be mentally and financially draining, but it's important to remember that they are a normal part of the game and not to let them affect your emotions or play.
Variance is very hard to measure or account for as every hand in poker has variance attached in one form or another, and it can be hard to tell whether you are playing well or badly, or getting lucky, or unlucky, in the short term.
Positive and negative variance can both lead to many forms of tilt. Positive variance can lead to overconfidence and moving up in stakes when you aren't ready financially or in terms of your ability.
Negative variance can do many things to players – from making them fear the flop to playing hands in unprofitable ways or reloading when they shouldn't.
How to cope financially with bad luck
To manage variance, it's important to have a solid bankroll management strategy in place. Avoid playing at stakes that are too high for your bankroll as you need to have enough buy-ins to cope with a big downswing. The worst thing that can ever happen to you in poker is losing your whole bankroll. And by playing without a big enough bankroll, you almost guarantee that happening.
Making sure you have between 50 and 100 buy-ins will mean you have enough funds to weather the ups and downs of variance, and minimise the risk of going broke.
How to cope emotionally with variance
Keeping your emotions under control at the poker table is one of the game's greatest challenges. Many people responds emotionally to winning or losing money and it's important that to be successful at poker you keep yours in check.
Be aware if variance is affecting your mood or your play, and if you're playing cash poker, consider calling it a night or at least taking a break from the table. Tournament poker doesn't allow that luxury, so the best advice is to be aware of it and focus on managing it. If you bust, don't re-enter.
Remember that if you’re not enjoying playing or having difficulty stopping, BeGambleAware offer excellent support and advice.
Measuring your performance with poker tracking software
Poker tracking software is the best way to understand when we are running well or playing badly. Holdem Manager 3* calculates your variance across your poker sessions and allows you to see whether your play was profitable in the long run or not (+EV).
The software can also help you to understand if the way you play certain hands in different positions at the table is profitable. Holdem Manager 3* also tracks your financial performance which can help you keep on top of your poker finances and manage your bankroll.
Remember that luck is part of the game
Without variance, poker would be chess.
There would always be the same winners and the same losers, and those who weren't winning players would lose interest and stop playing.
It's also part of the fun of the game. Making your draw or winning your flip is fun.
So when you're missing your draws and losing your flips, remember that this is part of the game and it too will pass.
But make sure you have the bankroll management principles in place to weather the storms so that you are ready for when the sun comes out again.