Is poker luck or skill?
We all know what it feels like to get unlucky at the poker table. It hurts.
Dealing with those swings is an important part of the game, but is poker luck or skill?
How much luck is in poker?
Poker is a skill game that has high levels of luck that affect short-term results.
The game is 100 per cent skill in the long-term but probably about 60 per cent luck and 40 per cent skill in the short term.
If that sounds complicated, here’s an example to explain.
If you have pocket aces and you are all-in against pocket kings, you are about an 80 per cent favourite.
If you somehow put yourself in this position in every game, you would be a hugely winning player over the course of a year or your lifetime. But…there is a 20 per cent chance that you will lose this specific hand, and if you do, that’s bad luck.
The fact that you picked up pocket aces at all is lucky, but over the long term, we will all have aces lots of times, and thankfully sometimes we will sometimes even have aces when our opponent has kings.
The trick is coping with the short-term swings of luck by playing good poker and having a bankroll strong enough to deal with the bad so that you’re still playing when the sun shines again.
How do you overcome the luck in poker?
Honestly, the only way to overcome luck in poker is to play more of it.
If you’re a bad player, it isn’t luck that’s the problem, and you should invest some time and money in improving your game by seeking out a coach, reading books, or watching tutorials.
Find out about the best poker books to help you get better.
But if you’re a winning player, the only way to overcome poker is to play more games. Playing more poker will reduce the significance of any single game and increase your chances of having a better result next time.
We don’t advocate chasing your money – this is purely mathematics.
Here’s an extreme example.
Imagine we were playing dice and I win if I roll a 5 or a 6, and you win if the dice falls on the other four numbers.
If we only play one dice roll and it falls on a 5, I win. That’s the end of it.
You got unlucky and you lose, but while you were a favourite, I still had a decent chance.
Now imagine we played this game 1000 times.
You are going to be a very significant winner because the number of times we play reduces the chance I have of my two numbers coming up more often than your four. So instead of my lucky numbers coming up, you go home a big winner.
Now apply that to poker. If you play one sit and go, and you get unlucky, that’s a big deal and a big disappointment. But if you’re playing them regularly and you’re a winning player, you will win more than you lose and come out on top.
Play poker against other people – not the house
This is a big deal. The reason that poker is skill rather than luck is that you’re playing against other people.
If you were playing video poker or three card poker against the house, that is a game of luck because the casino creates an edge against you.
Play other people and keep it a skill game.
Without the luck, there would be no game
A lot of amateur players get frustrated by their bad luck in poker, but the truth is there wouldn’t be a game without it.
Poker without luck is like chess. The same people would win and the same people would lose. There would never be that chance that you can overcome the odds and instead it would become a pretty predictable game.
So the next time your aces get cracked, try to remember that without luck, there would be no game.
So how do you work out if you are a good player or if you got lucky?
Understanding whether you are playing well or getting lucky is one of the hardest things to measure in poker.
Sometimes you play well and lose. Sometimes you play badly and win. And sometimes you play badly and lose!
Keeping a close track of your results and analysing your play away from the table is the best approach to understanding how you are playing.
We recommend Holdem Manager 3* for online poker tracking software and Poker Bankroll Tracker for those playing live.
Both of these tools will help you to understand whether you’re playing bad or running bad.